The current landscape of software tools for the climate-sensitive infectious disease modelling community.

Climate-sensitive infectious disease modelling is crucial for public health planning and is underpinned by a complex network of software tools. We identified only 37 tools that incorporated both climate inputs and epidemiological information to produce an output of disease risk in one package, were transparently described and validated, were named (for future searching and versioning), and were accessible (ie, the code was published during the past 10 years or was available on a repository, web platform, or other user interface). We noted disproportionate representation of developers based at North American and European institutions. Most tools (n=30 [81%]) focused on vector-borne diseases, and more than half (n=16 [53%]) of these tools focused on malaria. Few tools (n=4 [11%]) focused on food-borne, respiratory, or water-borne diseases. The under-representation of tools for estimating outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases represents a major knowledge gap. Just over half (n=20 [54%]) of the tools assessed were described as operationalised, with many freely available online.

Co-learning during the co-creation of a dengue early warning system for the health sector in Barbados.

Over the past decade, the Caribbean region has been challenged by compound climate and health hazards, including tropical storms, extreme heat and droughts and overlapping epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. Early warning systems (EWS) are a key climate change adaptation strategy for the health sector. An EWS can integrate climate information in forecasting models to predict the risk of disease outbreaks several weeks or months in advance. In this article, we share our experiences of co-learning during the process of co-creating a dengue EWS for the health sector in Barbados, and we discuss barriers to implementation as well as key opportunities. This process has involved bringing together health and climate practitioners with transdisciplinary researchers to jointly identify needs and priorities, assess available data, co-create an early warning tool, gather feedback via national and regional consultations and conduct trainings. Implementation is ongoing and our team continues to be committed to a long-term process of collaboration. Developing strong partnerships, particularly between the climate and health sectors in Barbados, has been a critical part of the research and development. In many countries, the national climate and health sectors have not worked together in a sustained or formal manner. This collaborative process has purposefully pushed us out of our comfort zone, challenging us to venture beyond our institutional and disciplinary silos. Through the co-creation of the EWS, we anticipate that the Barbados health system will be better able to mainstream climate information into decision-making processes using tailored tools, such as epidemic forecast reports, risk maps and climate-health bulletins, ultimately increasing the resilience of the health system.

Psychological Distress and Zika, Dengue and Chikungunya Symptoms Following the 2016 Earthquake in Bahía de Caráquez, Ecuador.

On 16 April 2016, a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck coastal Ecuador, resulting in significant mortality and morbidity, damages to infrastructure, and psychological trauma. This event coincided with the first outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) and co-circulation with dengue virus (DENV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV). We tested whether the degree of psychological distress was associated with the presence of suspected DENV, CHIKV, ZIKV (DCZ) infections three months after the earthquake. In July 2016, 601 household members from four communities in Bahía de Caráquez, Manabí Province, Ecuador, were surveyed in a post-disaster health evaluation. Information was collected on demographics, physical damages and injuries, chronic diseases, self-reported psychological distress, and DCZ symptoms. We calculated the prevalence of arbovirus and distress symptoms by community. ANOVA was used to compare the mean number of psychological distress symptoms between people with versus without suspected DCZ infections by age, gender, community and the need to sleep outside of the home due to damages. The prevalence of suspected DCZ infections was 9.7% and the prevalence of psychological distress was 58.1%. The average number of psychological distress symptoms was significantly higher among people with suspected DCZ infections in the periurban community of Bella Vista, in women, in adults 40-64 years of age and in individuals not sleeping at home (p < 0.05). The results of this study highlight the need to investigate the interactions between psychological distress and arboviral infections following natural disasters.

Climate Variability, Vulnerability, and Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Zika Virus in Manabi, Ecuador Following the 2016 Earthquake.

Climate change presents complex and wide-reaching threats to human health. A variable and changing climate can amplify and unmask ecological and socio-political weaknesses and increase the risk of adverse health outcomes in socially vulnerable regions. When natural disasters occur in such areas, underlying climatic conditions may amplify the public health crisis. We describe an emerging epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Ecuador following the 2016 earthquake, which coincided with an exceptionally strong El Niño event. We hypothesize that the trigger of a natural disaster during anomalous climate conditions and underlying social vulnerabilities were force multipliers contributing to a dramatic increase in ZIKV cases postearthquake.